Public technology and innovation planning Modules

• Development of specific future scenarios based on megatrends
• Use of the scenario funnel model to analyze possible futures

Our aim in using scenario technology is to gain comprehensive insights into possible futures. This enables us to make current decisions in research and procurement more resistant to future uncertainties. Based on significant societal developments, the so-called megatrends, we work closely with our clients to develop specific future scenarios that take the respective mandate of our clients into account. These scenarios cover defined planning periods and use organization-specific key factors to depict various possible futures.

The classic scenario funnel serves as a model for scenario analysis and illustrates that uncertainties grow with increasing time and the number of possible future scenarios increases. Depending on the intended use, the requirements for the scenario can vary greatly, which is reflected in the effort required to create it.

By combining these scenarios with specific tasks, incident scenarios are created. These form the basis for determining future challenges and derive the need for skills and research.

• Identification and prioritization of capability gaps
• Use of participatory formats such as workshops and interviews

In the public sector, specific tasks and necessary capabilities are derived from the mandates of public institutions. These capabilities are often critical to the function and continued existence of society and must be maintained at all times. By playing through future-relevant incident scenarios, we simulate the feasibility of these tasks and identify missing or insufficient capabilities.

We use participatory games and workshop formats, supplemented by guided interviews and questionnaires. The required capabilities include technological, personnel, organizational, procedural and infrastructure-specific dimensions. A precise description of the target capability as well as of existing ones enables a complete picture of the situation and the detailed definition of capability gaps.

As not all identified needs can be met at the same time, this module also includes important prioritization steps.

• Determination of technical, procedural and personnel interfaces
• Consideration of ethical, legal and societal perspectives

A solution only becomes an innovation when it is successfully implemented into an existing system or an operational context. An in-depth look at the subsequent operational environment is thus crucial. It is not enough to just look at the functionality; all interfaces with the environment must be taken into account, both within the various dimensions of the respective capability and in the external impact.

The operational context of a solution is determined along technical, procedural and personnel interfaces, including procurement aspects. We also consider the potential impact of the solution from an ethical, legal and societal perspective, including sustainability aspects. In this way, we identify solution-specific requirements that are considered when selecting and developing new solutions and can be integrated in the form of key performance indicators (KPIs).

This module distinguishes between developing a (technically) functional solution and identifying the most context-appropriate one.

• Use of the analysis tool KATI
• Identification and evaluation of technological and non-technological solutions

Technology screening is a central process in innovation management. It involves selecting the most promising technologies from a wide range of options using filters to identify the most suitable solutions for planned applications. In addition to technological approaches, procedural solutions may also be required to close identified capability gaps.

In addition to traditional desktop research, our team uses analysis tools such as Fraunhofer INT’s KATI. In addition, we conduct interviews and workshops with experts in order to narrow down the screening precisely and identify targeted solutions. This narrowing down is based on detailed descriptions of capability gaps and an analysis of the operational context (“capability pull”) as conducted in the previous modules. At the same time, an open view of technological developments enables the identification of innovation opportunities that can arise independently of a previously formulated need (“technology push”).

A balanced combination of both approaches is crucial for comprehensive strategic planning. The outcome of this module determines the direction of the final roadmap, be it for research and development of new solutions or the procurement and expansion of existing technologies. Furthermore, we conduct stakeholder analyses to identify relevant stakeholders, consider different needs and uncover opportunities for cooperation.

• Definition of key performance indicators (KPIs)
• Quantitative and qualitative evaluation methods

To answer this question, the definition of key performance indicators (KPIs) based on identified capability gaps is crucial. These KPIs define success criteria, describe the fit of the solution for the implementation and analyze cost-benefit aspects. Test and validation activities are methodically designed and based on these KPIs. Information on the operational context is crucial, as it enables successful implementation and must be considered both in the development of new solutions and in the selection of existing ones.

The comprehensive involvement of all levels and stakeholders is of great importance in these processes. In civil security, for example, it is not enough to involve only operational forces; tactical and strategic levels as well as political actors should also be involved in public sector planning processes. In addition to quantitative evaluation methods such as KPIs, qualitative methods are also used, which can provide valuable insights e. g. into the user experience and possible further development of a solution.

The evaluation process can also be carried out after operationalization to check whether the solution actually closes the targeted capability gap.

• Development of a structured implementation roadmap
• Definition of options for procurement and/or research

The roadmapping module is about defining the research and innovation steps required to meet the identified needs. The aim is to create a structured roadmap that implements the results of the planning process in technology and innovation planning. This roadmap varies depending on the type and maturity of the solutions.

Specific options for action are formulated for products or services on the market, which initiate the procurement process. In addition, research, testing and validation activities as well as the definition of corresponding key performance indicators (KPIs) can be integrated.

In comparison, the roadmap for the implementation of research projects to close capability gaps is more comprehensive. It includes the description of the capability gap in the operational context, the research needs and the objectives for one or more research projects. This also includes the required expertise and infrastructure, synergy potential with other RD&I activities, the identification of possible national and international partners, a cost and time estimate up to market maturity, financing options and the framework conditions for research and subsequent implementation. This includes organizational and legal aspects, required skills, personnel issues and ethical and societal questions.

The roadmaps (co-)created offer clients well-founded options for action, which provide crucial support in technology and innovation planning and help them to make informed decisions. A further result of this module can be policy recommendations which, in addition to the described RD&I roadmaps, may include options for optimizing the operational context.